ATP Tennis Aussie Open Jan 22

Another potentially big night thwarted by the slimmest of margins. The Dimitrov over cleared easily and the 10/1 future on him lives on. But, the parlay died when Nadal blew two separate second set break leads and then lost the TB. Of course, he cruised through the last two sets to close it out in four. Here’s how I’m looking for the year now:

My future on Chung is back in action tonight, though I pretty much ruined that on Friday night; as is Federer, though him winning will do little for the hole I’ve built in the futures market. I think I’ll need an unhedged Dimitrov/Federer final to make some noise. Individual bets continue to roll with a 19% ROI despite some tight, tight losses.

Onto tonight:

#TennysOrGTFO is on court tonight and I have to ride him for the third time in this tourney. Thiem is far from dominant on hard courts and the hold/break stats show that. I don’t expect Sandgren to win necessarily but, he can keep it close and I’ll be happy if he covers the spread.
Berdych and Fog kick off the slate tonight and this is two guys I never bet on. In fact, I’ve been fading Berdych pretty steady for about 18 months. Some factors in this match have convinced me to step in the ring though. Berdych has lost twice to Fog, both on clay — these courts in Melborne are far from clay. They have faced each other once on hards, at the US Open and Berych rolled 75,60,60. Their stats on hard courts lean heavily to Berdych as well; Berdych is one of best non-Big Four hard court players of the modern era, winning over 65% of his matches on the surface. He also holds an 8 point advantage in hold/break stats on hards. One further fact in Berdych’s favour is history in this spot. Fognini, despite his success on tour, has never done well in majors. He has made it to the round of 16 only three times. He lost twice and the one time he was victorious, he withdrew from the quarterfinal the next day. Conversely, Berdych routinely makes semi-finals and quarter-finals at majors. This moment should not make him nervous. People rag on Berdych a lot (and its probably justified) but, he generally beats who he is supposed to beat. And he looked really good against Delpo 48 hours ago, so let’s go Birdman.
The two matches featuring the big names tonight don’t offer much in the way of betting options. Federer should destroy Fucsovics but, nothing appeals to me. The 3–0 is even expensive at -450 and there isn’t really anything to parlay it with. Federer hasn’t covered any of the massive spreads in this tournament and while this might be a spot to back another huge dog spread, who out there believes Fed can’t rip off a 6–2,6–2,6–4 type effort?
The proper way to handle the Djokovic/Chung match would be for me to throw four units on it, hoping to win one and profit on my Chung future. But, I messed that up already. I’m going to have to sit back and just cheer for Chung to somehow follow up his win over Zverev with a massive Istomin-like upset. A possible further hedge would be to grab Djokovic ml if Chung somehow wins the opening set. That’s what I’ll be thinking on at 3:30 am this morning.

Sandgren +6.5, +110
Berdych -4.5, -138

Potentially Djokovic live as a hedge if he drops the first set,

Good Luck

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